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An ex-colonel from the special forces, government minister Al Carns was this week on manouevres warning that the UK must ready itself for war with Russia.

“The threat of conflict is knocking on Europe’s door once more. That’s the reality. We’ve got to be prepared to prevent it,” he stated, in comments that go beyond previous admonitions by his superior, the defence secretary.

“As a whole society – what is their role if we get caught in an existential crisis, and what do they need to be aware they need to do and what they can’t do, and how do we mobilise the nation to support a armed campaign?”

It was stark language from the 45-year-old born in Scotland MP, who has had an remarkably rapid rise to his role of minister for the military.

A Swift Political Ascent

And inevitably for a politician with a history of service in the armed forces, there is conjecture about whether he is future leadership material – as with, at various points, previous colleagues from a service background before him.

This time, however, some governing party MPs think there could be a real prospect of Carns being a contender if and when the opportunity arises.

One of the reasons for that is that Carns has been engaged with politics for longer than it seems, as a former military adviser to three previous defence secretaries.

But there is also the risk of being over-promoted as a politician with a personal history colleagues think will appeal to the public – without enough thought of whether they have the track record and political instincts to make it to the top.

From the Battlefield to Westminster

Carns was born in Aberdeen, and educated in the state system, before joining the Royal Marines in 1999 at the age of 19. He rose through the ranks and was awarded the Military Cross in 2011 “in recognition of gallant and distinguished services in Afghanistan”.

It came as a shock when he left the armed forces after 24 years of service to stand as an MP in Birmingham Selly Oak, shortly before he was due to be promoted to brigadier.

And in a sign he was immediately identified as a talent, the prime minister appointed him as a junior veterans minister straight after the 2024 election. He was elevated later that year to the more senior role with a portfolio covering all the military.

Public Profile and Partisan Combat

Chiselled and confident, Carns has been an occasional media performer for the government, and has been an effective political attack dog when criticising rival parties over issues of national security.

He has also found time to break a world record this year along with former military colleagues by ascending the world's highest peak in under five days without acclimatising on the mountain, using xenon gas.

Leadership Speculation and Internal Caution

His name was floated as a possible future leader in earnest around the time of a deputy contest last autumn, when his supporters began sounding out MPs about a run for the job. That did not gain traction, with the prime minister's office firmly backing another candidate.

Since then, profiles of Carns have begun to appear in the media, with one newspaper presenting him as the “Action Man” that some were trying to prevent from ousting the prime minister.

While some MPs think he could be prime ministerial timber, others think he is making himself appear overly eager when there is no opening at the top. There is also a wariness about the meteoric ascent of a high flyer from outside politics.

“It's not proven that being senior in the military translates to being any good at politics any more than being a top prosecutor,” says one MP. “He is an unknown quantity.”