Moving from Reluctant Respect to Disquiet: Russia Weighs Up the Fall of Maduro.

A unexpected operation on the capital in the dead of night, ending with the capture of the country's president. Within a day, the intervening power announces its intention to govern for an indefinite period.

That was the scenario Russia's president imagined his full-scale invasion of Ukraine playing out in February 2022. Instead, it was the former US president who executed it in Venezuela, in a move widely condemned internationally, spiriting away the Kremlin's historic ally Nicolás Maduro, who is set to be tried in New York.

Official Outrage and Private Thoughts

Officially, Moscow's representatives have expressed fury, condemning the attack as a blatant breach of international law and a dangerous precedent. Yet beyond the official statements, there is a feeling of reluctant admiration – and even jealousy – at the efficiency of a coup that Moscow itself once imagined, but failed to execute due to a series of intelligence blunders and stiff Ukrainian opposition.

“The operation was carried out competently,” wrote the pro-Kremlin Telegram channel Dva Mayora. “Most likely, this is exactly how our 'special military operation' was meant to proceed: fast, dramatic and conclusive. It’s hard to believe Russia's top general planned to be fighting for four years.”

Such commentary have fueled a atmosphere of introspection among pro-war voices, with some openly questioning how Russia's promised blitzkrieg in Ukraine turned into a long and bloody conflict.

Olga Uskova, said she felt “shame” on behalf of her country given how audacious the American action seemed. “Within 24 hours, Trump arrested Maduro and seemingly wrapped up his own 'special military operation,’” she wrote.

A Network Unravels

For over twenty years, Venezuela sought to cultivate a web of anti-American allies – from Moscow and Beijing to Cuba and Iran – hoping to forging a new axis capable of standing up to Washington.

However, even with Russia's foreign minister pledging support for Maduro's regime just in late December, hardly any experts ever expected Moscow would intervene meaningfully.

Mired in Ukraine, Russia has, over the past year, seen other key allies fall from power or weaken sharply – from Bashar al-Assad to an increasingly weakened Iran – exposing the constraints of the Kremlin's global influence.

“For Russia, the situation is profoundly awkward,” said Fyodor Lukyanov. “Venezuela is a close partner and ideological ally, and the two leaders have longstanding ties, forcing Moscow into little choice but to voice condemnation. But offering any real assistance to a country so distant is simply not feasible – for technical and logistical reasons.”

Focus on the Main Front

Analysts point to a deeper strategic consideration. The Kremlin's main focus, experts note, is Ukraine – and keeping a productive dialogue with Trump on that issue far outweighs the destiny of Caracas.

“Putin and Trump are currently focused on a much more significant issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's goodwill towards Caracas, it is not going to jeopardize a much larger strategic game with a critical partner over what it sees as a lesser priority,” Lukyanov added.

Concrete Losses and Emerging Risks

Still, Russia's loss of Venezuela carries several tangible costs for Moscow. If a pro-American administration were to emerge in Caracas, US defense specialists could examine large parts of the Venezuelan military's equipment, including sophisticated weaponry supplied by Russia.

Those include S-300VM air-defence systems sent over a decade ago, as well as an unknown quantity of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems provided during late 2025.

Moscow has also provided billions of dollars to Venezuela, much of which it is now unlikely ever to be recovered.

A more pressing concern for Moscow, however, is oil: US access to Venezuela's vast reserves could push global prices lower, endangering one of Russia's most important sources of income.

“If our American 'friends' secure Venezuela’s oilfields, over 50% of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote Oleg Deripaska. “And it appears their plan will be to ensure that the price of our oil does not exceed $50 a barrel.”

A Dark Optimism

Yet, some in Moscow see room for a grim silver lining. The US seizure of Maduro, they argue, could deal a final blow to the post-war global system and usher in a more nakedly 19th-century-style world – one where power, rather than rules, determines results.

“Team Trump is tough and cynical in pursuing its country's interests,” wrote Dmitry Medvedev with endorsement. “Removing Maduro had nothing to do with drugs – only oil, and they openly admit this. The principle of might makes right is clearly more powerful than international law.”