Morgan Rogers' Rich Vein of Form Fuels Aston Villa's Improbable Title Charge

It was eight weeks prior that the Villa attacker was standing on the Sunderland turf, looking confused as his coach scolded him for failing to anticipate a penetrating pass. During that period, with the team endured a six-game winless run, the question was whether his performances were a symptom or the source of Villa's wider issues.

“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”

A Touchline Reaction of Joy

On Sunday, however, the sideline response proved to be decidedly more positive. When Rogers swept in his brace-sealing goal to reclaim the lead for Villa, Emery discarded his jacket, spread his arms and shouted in triumph. Villa were on their way to a 10th successive win , after failing to win any of their first six matches, are somehow just three points off table-toppers Arsenal.

Are They Serious Hopefuls?

It remains a particularly tough query to answer. Past precedent, the perceived status of Villa, suggests not. Furthermore, their performances haven't been entirely convincing this season, despite the fact the positive results have accumulated.

Per statistical analysis, on just two occasions have Villa registered an expected goals figure significantly higher than their opponents. For a side which has put together 10 in a row, Villa seem strangely fragile – however currently the fine lines are going in their favour.

The Rogers Recipe

The current approach appears to be to exchange chances with rivals and then rely on Rogers to save the day with some crisp finishes. It happened against Leeds, it transpired against West Ham, and once more against Manchester United.

His opener stemmed from an exquisite effort, arced just inside the goal frame from a wide position. For his second acted as a slight scruffier version of goal number one as he pounced on a setup by his strike partner.

“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”

A Formidable Weapon

Is It Sustainable?

Logic says not. During the latest victory, the opponents had a greater number of attempts and more efforts on goal. The team has triumphed in eight consecutive games by the narrowest of margins. The defence has been breached in all except one of those matches.

Regression to the mean may well be the most significant challenge they have to face in the near future. Their key man, almost certainly, cannot keep on drilling his shots past despairing goalkeepers indefinitely.

Potential for Growth

Could it be a different scenario where, instead of results trending towards performances, the level of play rises to match the results. Key players could still find their top level.

  • The main striker might resume adding to his goal tally.
  • Jadon Sancho could transform into the performer he showed during his peak.
  • The injured centre-backs are set to return from injury, strengthening an occasionally vulnerable backline.

This could contain the potential of a title challenge, but they surely can persist in leaning entirely on one man.

Enjoying the Ride

But then, this was unforeseen. Few believed Villa would sit in a Champions League place in December. And most definitely earlier this season, nobody thought Rogers by the end of the year would be spearheading a championship pursuit while looking like a crucial Three Lions star.

This remarkable period must be cherished precisely because it seems so surreal. When the hero stood in front of the Villa faithful when the game ended leading the celebrations, it was clear to be relishing every moment. As he deserves to. These runs of form are rare in football and ought to be celebrated.

Amy Becker
Amy Becker

A geopolitical analyst with over a decade of experience covering European and Middle Eastern affairs, based in Berlin.