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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that a framework for a peace deal negotiated with American diplomats are poised to be finalised in a matter of days. Afterward, U.S. representatives are expected to submit the terms to the Russian leadership.

Berlin Talks Yield Significant Progress, With Critical Obstacles Remain

Following extensive talks in Berlin, US officials reported on Monday that approximately “90%” of the disputed points between Moscow and Kyiv had been resolved. Although the outlook appears positive, the path to ending the war is not guaranteed, especially given the Russian lack of participation from the current dialogue.

Early Tuesday morning, the Ukrainian president noted that the US Congress is expected to consider defense assurances and that a finalised set of agreements could be prepared “imminently.” He added that, the U.S. would engage in discussions with Moscow, leading to high-level meetings possibly this coming weekend.

Security Guarantees and Allied Backing

“We are counting on five key agreements. Several concern binding security pledges: formally ratified, that is, voted on and endorsed by the US Congress,” Zelenskyy remarked to journalists. He stated that these assurances would “reflect article 5” of the Nato alliance.

Earlier, US officials did not provide precise information regarding the probable makeup of the security package or the consequences if Moscow attempted to seize additional territory following an agreement. Officials did confirm that the U.S. does not intend to deploy troops on the ground in the country.

Leaders from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and eight other European countries said in a unified declaration that troops from a “coalition of the willing” could “help with the regeneration of Ukraine’s forces, in securing Ukrainian airspace, and in ensuring maritime security, potentially by operating inside its territory.”

However, they did not suggesting these actions would constitute assurances matching NATO's Article 5. In any case, there is scant indication that Russia is anywhere close to agreeing to the type of package being negotiated between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Kremlin Response and Land Issue

On Tuesday, the Russian government said it had not seen the specifics of the proposals on security assurances. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergey Ryabkov, declared that the country would not agree to troops from Nato countries being stationed in Ukrainian territory “under any circumstances.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian team and US negotiators remains the territorial question. One proposal centers on Kyiv relinquishing the parts of the Donbas it currently controls, while the Ukrainian side wants to maintain the current front lines. “Talks continue on the land dispute. You know, it is one of the key issues. At this point, there is no consensus on it yet,” the president said following the Berlin discussions.

American mediators, headed by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has suggested a middle-ground proposal. Under this plan would see Ukraine pull back, but Russia would not advance, with the resulting zone established as “an open economic area.” Moscow has indicated it could use internal security units rather than the army in such an area, implying it would still seek to control the territory.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘special economic zone’ is not under the control of Russia. Neither de jure nor de facto do we accept Donbas – its temporarily occupied part – as Russian. Categorically,” stated Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Possible Scenarios

It is not clear how the two sides will resolve the land question. The Ukrainian leader has earlier mentioned that a compromise solution like a free economic zone could be conceivable if the citizens of Ukraine approved it in a national vote. The critical stumbling block is likely to be when the proposals are put to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has shown no indication he is prepared to concede on his war aims.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will end up with precisely the situation we are encountering on our flight right now – turbulence,” said Zelenskyy, making the statement after his plane took off from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will apply sanctions pressure and supply additional armaments if they reject the deal. In my view, that would be a fair request from Ukraine to the Americans,” he concluded.